Himfr.com Reports Analysis of trends in the gold market in 2009

1, 2008 gold market gold price trend 1,2008

2008 gold price trend of very crazy, rewritten a number of important historical record: March 17, gold hit its highest ever level 1032 U.S. dollars / ounce; September 17, gold hit a record high single-day rise 85.8 U.S. dollars / ounce; 10 On 10, gold hit a record single-day decline 66.65 U.S. dollars / ounce.

While the international price of gold shot up after the fall, but in the global economic weakness and the stock market crash in the context of commodity markets, gold as the most defensive investment products. 2,2008 gold market demand

The first three quarters of 2008 the global demand for 2570 tons of gold in the fourth quarter is projected at 843 tons, full-year forecast for 3413 tons, about 4% increase over 2007. 1) The first quarter of 2008, gold demand is 701 tons, down 16% from a year earlier

Five years of quarterly data record low of a drop in demand mainly by the price of gold is high and the fluctuations caused by the price of gold in mid-March once reached 1000 U.S. dollars / ounce to a record high.

A serious impact on the family for the high price of gold jewelry, gold bars and gold coins of the "physical buying." Demand for jewelry fell by 21% to 445.4 tons, is 90 years since the beginning of the last century, the lowest quarterly level. Net retail investment demand in the first quarter fell 35% to 72.7 tons.

The gold ETF market conditions opposite. As the stock market turbulence, rising against the U.S. dollar weakness and inflation concerns, as well as gold investment characteristics of more and more understanding, prompting the first quarter of 2007, demand for gold ETF rose 100 percent to reach 73 tons. 2) The second quarter, calculated according to t the total demand for gold fell 19%, only 735.6 tons.

Continued to rise and volatile gold prices led to a drop in demand of gold affected, especially serious is that jewelry demand fell 24%, to 504 tons, while the global credit crunch and inflationary pressures continue to climb due to consumer demand crunch has also affected . Globally, the largest decline in jewelry demand in India market, down 47%, to 118 tons; followed by the United States, down 30%, only 33 tons. However, jewelry demand in China and Egypt, respectively, the market grew by 2% and 8% 3) third-quarter annual rate of global demand for gold increased by 18%, to 1133.4 tons

A drastic shrinkage of gold to attract investors bargain-hunting, reversing a trend of weakness in the first half of the gold market. Among them, subject to a global recession triggered safe-haven buying support, gold investment demand to increase by 56% to 382.1 tons. Many investors believe that the major economies of the generous bailout program is paving the way for future inflation, especially the U.S. and Europe.

Gold ETF demand for the world's third-quarter growth of 8% to 150 tons. Jewelry demand rose 8% to 647.6 tons, Indian buyers have made a significant contribution; by the jewelry and retail investment demand-pull, the country's total demand in the third quarter rose 31% to 249.5 tons. Due to slowing demand for electronic products, industrial gold demand in the third quarter decreased by 11% to 103.7 tons. 4) The World Gold Council expects fourth-quarter global demand for gold or to be holding steady at around 843 tons.

Historical data show that in India in mid-October to buy gold during Diwali grew more prominent, in addition to investment demand is expected to be the biggest highlight. 3,2008 years of production in the gold market

China Gold Association data show that from January to September this year, China's total production of 199.25 tons of gold, with the 2007 increase of 7.79 tons over the same period, an increase of 4.07%. Expects full-year 2008 production will reach 276 tons, slightly higher than in 2007 270.491 tons. In production costs, the West many large-scale gold production costs referred to 450 U.S. dollars / ounce, the completion of the cost of domestic mineral gold in about 100-130 yuan / kg.

In the first three quarters of gold production of 199.248 tons, 92.272 billion yuan of industrial output value, profit of 9.8973 billion yuan, that is, the gold chain profit of 49.67 yuan per gram. From January to September, China's gold production of mineral gold (gold + content in the finished products mines gold) 164.82 tons, compared with 4.67% increase over the same period in 2007. Some small-scale gold mine production levels, due to the direct sale to smelters, are not included in sub-provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) production. This part of the total production of about 25.9 tons.

To all the key gold-producing provinces and regions in the country's total output of mineral gold mine gold output ratio, Shandong, Henan, Fujian, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Gansu, Jilin, ten key gold-producing provinces and regions in production of minerals and some gold China's gold production accounted for 65.59% of mineral and other provinces, accounting for 34.41%. 4, platinum and gold market

Platinum prices from the beginning of March all the way down to 2290 U.S. dollars an ounce, current price is almost unchanged with the price of gold fell to 820 U.S. dollars an ounce. 2006 Global gold production is 2485 tons, but production of platinum gold, only about 225 tons, combined with a higher melting point of platinum, hardness greater purification more difficult, so a long time, platinum is more expensive than gold.

Sharp decline in platinum prices was mainly due to their consumption structure. Consumption of gold jewelry and investment structure is mainly accounted for about 85%, for industrial use accounts for only about 10%, while platinum reached 85% for industrial, jewelry and investment accounts for only about 15%. One big automobile consumption, which is not difficult to understand the price of platinum has plunged.

Second, the gold market in 2009 forecast a trend, the main factors affecting the price of gold

As the two kinds of gold both commodity and financial attributes, so many factors that affect the price of gold, and more complicated. In addition to supply and demand, the dollar index changes, CPI index, the international political changes, changes in crude oil prices the main factor affecting the international gold price. In which CPI index, the international crude oil prices, international political changes and the international gold price has a positive correlation, while the dollar index change and the international gold price has a negative correlation. 2, the future trend of gold price forecasts a) whether the factors conducive to gold prices

Gold jewelry demand is steady and improving, especially in the Middle East, India, China and other countries; and because fewer and fewer high-quality mineral resources, the global gold mine production is in a downward trend. Some experts expect the next five years will be an annual gold production fell about 3%. But be aware that physical gold demand to increase the price of gold is not the price of gold have a material impact of the most important factor.

Have a substantial increase in investment demand, out of a global recession worries and the expected weak dollar, gold's safe-haven function will be taken seriously. If the global economy, fiscal and monetary stimulus initiatives to be successful, then the inflation will lead to gold prices. If the fiscal and monetary stimulus package did not work, then the economic instability will lead to political instability in some countries or regions, then as the safest haven, gold prices will rise.

Against the U.S. dollar-centered international monetary valuation system, re-evaluation, will enable countries to increase their gold reserves. There were unconfirmed reports that China, Japan and other countries will greatly increase their gold reserves, such as China's current 600 tons of gold reserves, target to reach 4,000 tons. 2) is not conducive to the gold price factor

Gold is associated with the plunge in oil prices, from the top 147 U.S. dollars has dropped more than 100 U.S. dollars, but still can not see stabilized phenomenon. The same decline in global commodity enormous pressure on the price of gold.

The Fund's departure to return to its value range of commodities, the fund if the withdrawal of the gold market, gold will make a strong dissipated. 3) The future of gold price forecasts

In conclusion, to predict the future for gold is not easy, personally believe that 2009 will be in the oscillation period, the medium and long term, as the most effective means to combat inflation, the price of gold can still be optimistic.

Most analysts are optimistic about the gold price movements, especially the long-term trend, widely expected to rise to the long-term 1,000 U.S. dollars an ounce, United States in November 2008 for gold forecast for the next few years is as high as 2000 U.S. dollars.
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